Week 5 NFL Picks, Betting Odds And Predictions For Every Game
We’re finally at the stage of the NFL season where we can clearly tell who is good and who is bad. We have a larger sample size of stats which might make picking games against the spread a little bit easier.
Or will it?
Before we take a look at Week 5’s picks, let’s take a look at how I did last week.
Week 4 record: 9-7
Season record: 34-30
All odds via DraftKings sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday, October 7, 2021
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Andre’s Pick: Seahawks. I hate looking at trends because I don’t think a game that occurred in 2011 should dictate anything about a game in 2021. But, the Seahawks are 13-2 as home underdogs against the spread since the start of 2011. Seattle doesn’t turn the ball over, they’re at home and it’s a Thursday night so anything can happen.
Sunday, October 10, 2021
New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3), 9:30 AM (Game in London)
Andre’s Pick: Jets. Atlanta’s yards per play differential is worse than New York’s. Zach Wilson showed he can make plays last week when he’s not going up against an elite defense and Atlanta has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. The Jets’ pass defense is probably their best strength and Matt Ryan kind of stinks this year. He ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers (-3.5), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Eagles. No team runs the ball more efficiently than the Eagles. They lead the league in yards per carry and Carolina is in the middle of the pack against the run. The Eagles are also a complete team. Despite their record, they rank third in yards per play differential. Now that they’re not playing an explosive offense like Dallas or Kansas City, maybe they won’t fall behind early and go away from the run. Although they are first in yards per carry, the Eagles are T-25th in attempts. It helps that Christian McCaffrey is out, too.
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Bengals. The Bengals rank fourth in yards per play differential. The Packers have a negative yards per play differential. Cincinnati’s defense is for real as they rank fifth in yards allowed per play, fourth in passing yards allowed per play and seventh in yards allowed per carry. Green Bay also has a solid defense, but their pass rush isn’t strong enough to expose Cincy’s biggest weakness – its offensive line.
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Houston Texans, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Patriots. Bill Belichick has dominated rookie quarterbacks in his career. This is also a must-win game for the Patriots. Since 2000, quarterbacks with 20 or fewer games of experience going up against Belichick have 86 touchdowns and 108 interceptions with a 20-67 record.
Tennessee Titans (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Titans. Urban Meyer is partying with college girls. Opposing quarterbacks have completed more than 75 percent of passes against Jacksonville this year. Seems like an opportune time for Ryan Tannehill to shine. The Jaguars rush defense is solid as they allow the fifth-fewest yards per carry, but Derrick Henry is easily the biggest test they’ve faced. Henry averaged more than eight yards per carry against the Jaguars in his last meeting against them.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Steelers. The Broncos realized last week that the world is a little bit more difficult when you don’t play the Jets, Giants or Jaguars every week. The Steelers have their offensive deficiencies, but so do the Broncos. Don’t expect many points in this game, but the Steelers have the best offensive player in the game in Najee Harris and the Broncos showed they’re susceptible to deep passes in last week’s game. I’m also not too trustworthy of the Broncos away from Mile High.
New Orleans Saints (-2) at Washington Football Team, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Football Team. The Saints do a great job against the run, but I think Taylor Heineke is more than capable of winning a game with his arm. Washington has the better yards per play differential and they do a good job protecting the quarterback, too, as they’ve allowed the second-fewest sacks. The Saints don’t have much of a pass rush, anyway. Finally, Jameis Winston, who only has three interceptions this season, is bound to start throwing more picks eventually.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-8), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Vikings. Detroit allows the most yards per passing attempt and now they’re going up against Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Minnesota’s biggest weakness is their run defense, but Detroit’s running attack poses a very small threat. Plus, they might be trailing the whole game and abandon the run early.
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Bucs. Tampa’s rush defense allows 2.7 yards per carry. If Miami wants to score, they’re going to need Jacoby Brissett to have the game of his life, but he only averages 4.9 yards per pass attempt — dead last in the NFL.
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-2), 4:05 PM
Andre’s Pick: Chargers. The Browns allow the second-fewest yards per play and have the second-best yards per play differential, but they’ve also gone up against some pretty mediocre competition. I don’t trust Kevin Stefanski’s clock management, which was awful last week and Baker Mayfield missed plenty of throws. They can’t keep making mistakes like that against a team like the Chargers and expect to win.
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5), 4:05 PM
Andre’s Pick: Raiders. The Raiders allow the second-fewest yards per pass attempt. Good luck, Justin Fields. The Bears pass defense isn’t all too great either. They allow more than 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Expect some deep balls from Derek Carr to his explosive receivers.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7), 4:25 PM
Andre’s Pick: Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott is back. The Cowboys average the second-most yards per carry thanks to their two-headed tandem of Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Giants rush defense allows 4.5 yards per carry. You have to expect the turnover-happy Cowboys defense to make Daniel Jones make a few mistakes, too.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5), 4:25 PM
Andre’s Pick: Cardinals. Arizona allows the most yards per carry, but the 49ers don’t really have a great running attack. The 49ers defense has forced a grand total of one turnover this year. Kyler Murray is great as he averages the most yards per pass attempt, but the Cardinals pass defense has also been strong during their run. They’ve allowed the eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5), 8:20 PM
Andre’s Pick: Bills. The Bills allow the fewest yards per pass attempt, granted they haven’t gone up against Patrick Mahomes. But the real reason why Kansas City will lose this game is because of their weak defense. They allow the third-most yards per pass attempt so expect Josh Allen to have no problem slinging it. Their rush defense is trash, too, as they have the worst expected points contributed by a rush defense in the NFL.
Monday, October 11, 2021
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), 8:15 PM
Andre’s Pick: Ravens. People keep saying Lamar Jackson can’t throw the ball, but all he’s doing is averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt — fifth best in the league. Indy allows the sixth-most yards per pass attempt. Carson Wentz is 26th in that same category. Baltimore also has the advantage on the ground.