Week 4 NFL Picks, Betting Odds And Predictions For Every Game
We’re on to October!
And just like that, three weeks of the NFL are in the books as we approach the first of four October NFL Sundays.
Before I give my against-the-spread picks for this week, let’s take a look at how we did last week.
Week 3 Record: 8-8
Season Record: 25-23
All odds courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook on Wednesday morning.
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5), 8:20 PM
Andre’s Pick: Bengals. It’s a matchup between the last two No. 1 overall picks of the NFL Draft, but I’ll be keeping a close eye on Cincinnati’s elite rush defense. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per carry this season and they’ve done it against some stiff competition. They held Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery to just three yards per carry in the first two weeks and Najee Harris to just 40 yards last week. The Jaguars allow the third-most passing yards per attempt — not good news going up against Joe Burrow, who has found his favorite receiving target in rookie JaMarr Chase who has four touchdowns in his first three career games.
Sunday, October 3, 2021
Tennessee Titans (-8) vs. New York Jets, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Jets. Maybe that Denver defense is for real. Zach Wilson looked absolutely dreadful last week against the Broncos. Maybe he rights the ship this week against a dreadful Titans pass defense that’s allowed more than eight passing yards per attempt this season. The Titans have forced only one turnover this season. If it’s one strength the Jets have, it’s their rush defense where they rank in the middle of the pack. Titans win, but Jets keep it close.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Eagles. I’m sorry, but the Chiefs defense is really bad this year. They’re allowing more than nine yards per passing attempt and more than five yards per carry. Jalen Hurts might run all over the Chiefs defense this week. If the Eagles can run the ball well, they’ll be able to keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes’ hands. The Eagles defense isn’t all that bad either. They’re ranked seventh in yards allowed per play and fourth in yards per play differential. I also have concerns about the Chiefs’ preparation with Andy Reid having health issues. Finally, when was the last time the Chiefs covered? They’re 1-12-1 against-the-spread since Nov. 8, 2020.
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills (-16), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Bills. Davis Mills goes up against the NFL’s second-best pass defense in terms of yards allowed per play. (Granted the Bills’ opposing quarterbacks have been an aging Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett and Taylor Heineke — Davis Mills is worse than that trio.) Josh Allen, who struggled against strong defenses like the Steelers and Dolphins in the first two weeks, showed that he can take care of business against the NFL’s weaker teams. He’ll do just that on Sunday in Orchard Park.
Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-4), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Panthers. No Christian McCaffrey hurts Carolina, but Chuba Hubbard proved to be decent in his absence. Dallas allows the third-most yards per play, but they do lead the league in interceptions. Sam Darnold has been playing very careful football this year and has thrown only one interception. Yes, two of the Panthers’ three wins have come against the Jets and Texans, but they were dominant victories. I’ve been talking about all month how Carolina was my dark horse team this year because they played in many close games last year, the analytics especially on defense liked them and that they were a QB away from becoming a contending team. Darnold has shown that he’s more than capable of being that guy and the Panthers currently have allowed the fewest yards per play and have the league’s best yards per play differential. Finally, the Panthers played on Thursday night and will be well-rested and better prepared against a Dallas team on short rest following an emotional divisional game against the Eagles. Head coach Mike McCarthy even gave his squad the Tuesday off following their victory.
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints (-8), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Saints. The Saints are somehow second in turnover differential WITH Jameis Winston as their quarterback. The Superdome will be rocking in the Saints’ first home game there. They’ve allowed the second-fewest yards per carry (and one of their opposing running backs was Christian McCaffrey) so they’ll limit Saquon Barkley and force Daniel Jones to make plays (yikes).
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Browns. I can’t get a good read on the Vikings. They lost to Cincinnati, lost to Arizona by one and then beat Seattle after trailing by using long, sustained drives in the second half to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands. Problem is, their biggest weakness is their rush defense as they allow the fourth-most yards per carry. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have big days and roll to a win.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins (-2), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Dolphins. The Colts and Dolphins rank 29th and 31st in yards per play differential, respectably. Don’t watch this game.
Washington Football Team (-1.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Football Team. I’m higher on Washington than most people, but they’ve had a tough schedule. They played the Chargers in Week 1 before winning a thriller on a short week against the Giants before having to go to Buffalo. Now they get the lowly Falcons, who rank 27th in yards per play differential. Everyone kept talking about how poor Atlanta’s pass defense was going to be this season, but it’s honestly been their offense that stinks. Matt Ryan is averaging just six yards per pass attempt (28th in NFL).
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-3), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Lions. Every rule in the NFL is made to benefit the offense in 2021, yet Justin Fields managed 68 passing yards and was sacked nine times for 67 yards on Sunday. Head coach Matt Nagy said Andy Dalton, Fields and Nick Foles were all under consideration to start on Sunday. It really doesn’t matter. They all stink. The Bears are averaging 3.3 yards per play — in 2021. They’ve scored four touchdowns all season and one of them was a defensive score. Their defense isn’t all that great either as they’ve allowed four touchdowns longer than 25 yards.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-4.5), 4:05 PM
Andre’s Pick: Rams. Arizona and L.A. are ranked second and third in yards per play, respectably. This is going to be such a fun game. I like the Rams to win because of their ability to stop the run. Their numbers don’t really show it this year, but they were third in yards allowed per carry last season. Kyler Murray is also much more turnover prone than Matthew Stafford. I’ll take the Rams at home. Fun stat: Since the 2017 season, the Rams are 8-0 against Arizona with an average margin of victory of 20 points.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3), 4:05 PM
Andre’s Pick: Seahawks. Seattle leads the NFL in yards per play. The way to beat them is with long and sustained drives. Tennessee and Minnesota both accomplished this in comeback victories over the Seahawks. Unfortunately for the 49ers, their running game is weak and we’re going to see a lot of Russell Wilson making plays in this game. The Niners have allowed 30+ points twice this season already.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5), 4:25 PM
Andre’s Pick: Packers. The Steelers can’t expect Old Man Roethlisberger to throw the ball 58 times like he did last week and win games. Najee Harris is struggling running the ball and the Steelers are dead last in yards per carry. The defense is not where it needs to be (5.8 yards allowed per carry) if they want to succeed with an aging Big Ben.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos (-1), 4:25 PM
Andre’s Pick: Ravens. Easiest pick of the week. Denver beat up on Jacksonville, the Giants and the Jets. They have not been tested. Their defensive numbers are inflated and even with the crappy opponents, their offensive numbers aren’t anything exciting.
Tampa Bay Bucs (-7) vs. New England Patriots, 8:20 PM
Andre’s Pick: Patriots. Bill Belichick is a defensive mind and he knows all of Tom Brady’s tendencies. That’s a lot of points to give up. Tampa’s pass defense is a weakness — they’ve allowed the most explosive pass plays (20+ yards) in the NFL. The Bucs’ strength is their run defense, but New England doesn’t really run the ball. Mac Jones has been in big moments during his college career and won’t be phased by all the drama that comes with this game. Bill knows the Patriots aren’t competing with the Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers or Bills in the AFC this year — not with a rookie QB. This is their Super Bowl. Pats by a million.
Monday, October 4, 2021
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3), 8:15 PM
Andre’s Pick: Chargers. What is there to say? L.A. has the advantage at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. The Chargers’ biggest weakness is run defense, but the Raiders aren’t very good at running the ball. Las Vegas has allowed a ton of points to some anemic offenses over the last few weeks. Things aren’t going to be easy against Justin Herbert.