The NFL season is flying by as we enter Week 7. This week, six teams will be bye so there will be 13 games to watch — the fewest amount of the year.
Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s take a look at how we did last week.
Week 6 record: 6-8
All lines via DraftKings sportsbook.
Thursday, October 21, 2021
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-1.5), 8:20 PM
Andre’s Pick: Browns. The Browns have the third-best yards per play differential in the NFL, but they’ll be missing Baker Mayfield, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. That said, the Browns don’t need them to win. THey allow the third-fewest yards per carry so expect Teddy Bridgewater to have a heavy workload — which might not be good news on the road in a hostile environment.
Sunday, October 24, 2021
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-6.5), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Patriots. Bill Belichick goes up against another rookie quarterback, who will likely have a heavy workload. The Patriots allow the sixth-fewest yards per carry so expect the Pats to shut down the run and force Zach Wilson to make plays.
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-7.5), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Packers. The Packers take care of business at home against a Washington team that allows six yards per play and nearly eight yards per pass attempt. The Packers also have an elite pass defense, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Bengals. The Bengals allow the second-fewest yards per play and have the fourth-best yards per play differential. This is a balanced team. Their only two losses came by three points. They also have the second-best expected points contributed by a rush defense — a great recipe for success against the Ravens explosive running attack.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Tennessee Titans, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Titans. Both defenses are awful, so I’ll take the home underdog. The Chiefs’ rush defense has been atrocious all season and they’ll have a very hard time stopping Derrick Henry. Henry will eat up time and keep Patrick Mahomes on the bench.
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New York Giants, 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Panthers. Carolina has come back down to earth after their 3-0 start, but all three losses have been by one possession. They’ll have an easier time against an injury-ridden Giants team. Despite the losses, the Panthers are still a top-10 defense and that’s all that really matters against trash opponents.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins , 1:00 PM
Andre’s Pick: Dolphins. Here’s what we know: Miami stinks against good teams (blow out losses to Buffalo and Tampa Bay) and they’re competitive against mediocre ones. I’ll take the points here. Atlanta has one of the worst yards-per play differentials.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15.5), 4:05 PM
Andre’s Pick: Rams. Only one stat matters. Matthew Stafford averages the most yards per pass attempt and the Lions allow the most.
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3), 4:05 PM
Andre’s Pick: Raiders. The Eagles are a very poorly coached team as evidenced by the fact that they don’t run the ball despite averaging the third-most yards per carry in the NFL. They will not succeed in the passing game against the Raiders, who have allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12), 4:25 PM
Andre’s Pick: Bucs. The Bears have the fourth worst yards per play differential and they’re going to have to rely on Justin Fields a lot because Tampa’s rush defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Tampa will have an easy time containing Chicago.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17.5), 4:25 PM
Andre’s Pick: Cardinals. J.J. Watt revenge game! The Texans have the third-worst yards per play differential. It’s going to be difficult to see them stopping Arizona’s explosive offensive attack.
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5), 8:20 PM
Andre’s Pick: Colts. That’s a lot of points, between two evenly matched teams.
Monday, October 25, 2021
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM
Andre’s Pick: Saints. The Saints have the best rush defense in football, which means Geno Smith is going to have to make a lot of plays on his own. Geno Smith is a poor man’s Jameis Winston.